“ຄຳວ່າຮັກຊາດ” ຟັງແລ້ວມ່ວນຫູ

Thanks to Samanxon Laoislao and Khounta KeudKèo:

https://www.facebook.com/samanson.laoislao
https://www.facebook.com/khounta.keudkeo.9

 

“ບົດວິເຄາະ“

ຄຳວ່າຮັກຊາດ ຟັງແລ້ວມ່ວນຫູ ຂ້າພະເຈົ້າພູມໃຈ ແລະດີໃຈທີ່ທຸກຄົນມີຄວາມຮູ້ສຶກໃນຄວາມເປັນຄົນ ທີ່ມີສະຕິຊາດອັນເລິກເຊິ່ງ ແລະໜັກແໜ້ນ.

“ຮັກຊາດ”ບໍ່ແມ່ນພຽງແຕ່ການປົກປ້ອງເຂດນໍ້າແດນດິນເທົ່ານັ້ນ ມັນໄດ້ກວມເອົາທຸກສິ່ງທຸກຢ່າງຊຶ່ງເປັນຊັບສິນ, ເປັນຊັບສົມບັດຂອງປະເທດຊາດ ພວກເຮົາທຸກຄົນຄືເຈົ້າຂອງແຜ່ນດິນຕ້ອງມີພັນທະໃນການປົກປັກຮັກສາໄວ້ໃຫ້ດີ ຕາບຊົ່ວຊີວິດ ພ້ອມນັ້ນກໍຍັງຕ້ອງໄດ້ປູກຝັງຈິດສຳນຶກນີ້ໃຫ້ລູກຫຼານລຸ້ນຕໍ່ໆໄປ ອັນທີ່ສຳຄັນຄືການຢູ່ຮ່ວມກັນຢ່າງມີຄວາມສຸກຄວາມສົມດຸນໃນສັງຄົມ ນັ້ນຈະກາຍເປັນຄວາມໝັ້ນຄົງຂອງຊາດ ຊາດຈະໝັ້ນຄົງ ແລະຈະເລີນເຕີບໂຕໄດ້ ພວກເຮົາຕ້ອງມີຄວາມສາມັກຄີຮັກແພງ ຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອຊຶ່ງກັນແລະກັນ ມີຄວາມກະຕັນຍູ ຮູ້ບຸນຄຸນ ຮັກເຊື້ອແພງຊາດ ຮ່ວມມືກັນເພື່ອປົກປ້ອງເຂດນໍ້າ ແດນດິນ ປົກປັກຮັກສາຊັບໃນດິນ ສີນໃນນໍ້າບໍ່ໃຫ້ສູນເສຍ ບໍ່ໃຫ້ຖືກທຳລາຍ ຮູ້ຮັກບ້ານເກີດເມືອງນອນ ອັນເປັນທີ່ຫວງແຫນຂອງຕົນ.
ແຕ່ເມື່ອສັງຄົມມັນປ່ຽນໄປໃຈຄົນກໍປ່ຽນແປງ ສະຕິຊາດຄ່ອຍໆຫາຍໄປ ຍ້ອນປວງຊົນຊາວລາວທົ່ວທັງປະເທດ ພາກັນນິ້ງເສີຍ ປ່ອຍປະລະເລີຍບໍ່ສົນໃຈ ການບ້ານການເມືອງ, ການພັດທະນາປະເທດຈຶ່ງເປັນໄປຕາມມີຕາມເກີດ ຕາມຍະຖາກຳ, ຜູ້ມີອໍານາດຕັດສີນອານາຄົດຂອງປະເທດພຽງຜູ້ດຽວ ຢາກເຮັດຫຍັງກໍເຮັດໄປໂດຍພາລະການ ປະຊາຊົນຄືເຈົ້າຂອງແຜ່ນດິນບໍ່ມີປາກ ບໍ່ມີສຽງ ບໍ່ມີສ່ວນຮ່ວມ ຫຍັງທັງໝົດ ເພາະສະນັ້ນເລີຍກາຍເປັນສ່ອງຫ່ວາງທີ່ດີໃຫ້ຜູ້ມີອຳນາດຊອກ ສະແຫວງຫາຜົນປະໂຫຍດມາໃສ່ຕົນເອງໄດ້ສະບາຍໆ ໂດຍຂຽນໂຄງການພັດທະນາຕ່າງໆ ເພື່ອລວງຕາປະຊາຊົນ.
ປະເທດຊາດຖືກພັດທະນາມາ39ປີແລ້ວກໍດີ ນັ້ນກໍເຫັນວ່າມີອັນປ່ຽນແປງ ເປັນຕົ້ນການກໍ່ສ້າງພື້ນຖານໂຄງລ່າງ ໃນຂອບເຂດເມືອງໃຫຍ່ໆ ເຫັນວ່າແປກຕາຂຶ້ນແດ່ເລັກນ້ອຍ ສ່ວນເມືອງນ້ອຍກໍບໍ່ມີຫຍັງແປກ ນັ້ນມັນບໍ່ຄຸ້ມຄ່າກັບເວລາທີ່ເສຍໄປ ບໍ່ດຸນດຽງກັບຊັບພະຍາກອນ ທຳມະຊາດຂອງປະເທດທີ່ສູນຫາຍໄປ ຍົກຕົວຢ່າງນຶ່ງ ທີ່ເປັນພະຍາດຊໍາຮື້ອແລະອັນຕະລາຍທີ່ສຸດຄື: ການຂາຍໄມ້ ຊຶ່ງເຄີຍພົບເຫັນມາແຕ່່ ປີ1976 ເປັນຕົ້ນມາຈົນເຖິງປະຈຸບັນ ແລະດຽວນີ້ກໍຍັງແກ່ໄປຂາຍຢູ່ ແຕ່ບໍ່ຮູ້ວ່າເງິນ ຈຳນວນນັ້ນຢູ່ໃສ? ເອົາໄປເຮັດຫຍັງ? ເຮັດຢູ່ໃສ? ປະຊາຊົນບໍ່ມີໃຜຮູ້ເລີຍ, ເວົ້າແລ້ວຂາຍໄມ້ມາເກືອບ39ປີ ຖ້າເອົາເງິນຈຳນວນດັ່ງກ່າວ ມາເຮັດທາງປູຄອນກຣີດແຕ່ຫົວຂອງຮອດຫຼີ່ຜີກໍໄດ້ແລ້ວ ຫຼືບໍ່ກໍຊອຍເປັນໄມ້ແປ້ນ ປູເຮັດທາງຈາກຫົວຂອງຮອດຫຼີ່ຜີກໍໄດ້ເໝືອນກັນ, ມາເບິ່ງແລ້ວມັນຄຸ້ມບໍ? ກັບຄວາມຈະເລີນຂອງຊາດ.

ຜູ້ນໍາລັດຖະບານຕ້ອງຮູ້ຈັກພາລະໜ້າທີ່ຂອງຕົນເອງຖ້າຮັກຊາດແທ້.

ການສ້າງສາພັດທະນາປະເທດຊາດຕ້ອງໄດ້ຄໍານຶຶງເຖິງປະຊາຊົນໃຫ້ໄດ້ປະໂຫຍດສູງສຸດ ລັດຖະບານຕ້ອງຮັບຟັງ ບັນຫາແລະເຫດຜົນຈາກປະຊາຊົນ,ໃຫ້ພວກເຂົາໄດ້ໃຊ້ສິດເຕັມ100ໃນການມີສ່ວນຮ່ວມ ໃນການອອກຄໍາຄິດຄໍາເຫັນສະທ້ອນຕໍ່ບັນຫາຜົນກະທົບທີ່ຈະຕາມມາ ສິ່ງສໍາຄັນລັດຖະບານ ເຮັດຫຍັງກໍຕ້ອງໃຫ້ຢູ່ພາຍໄຕ້ຄວາມໂປ່ງໃສ, ກວດສອບໄດ້ ໃຫ້ມີຄວາມສັດຊື່ແລະຈິງໃຈ ຜ່ານມາການປົກຄອງຂອງລັດຖະບານແມ່ນຫຼົ້ມເຫຼວຢາງມະຫັນຕະລາຍທີ່ສຸດ ບໍ່ວ່າທາງດ້ານການເມືອງ ເສດຖະກິດ ສັງຄົມ ວັດທະນະທໍາ ແລະອື່ນໆ ຂາດຫຼັກທີ່ຖືກຕ້ອງໃນການປົກຄອງປະເທດ ເອົາປະເທດເປັນເປັນໜູລອງຢາໄປເລື້ອຍໆ ໜ້າສົງສານອະນາຄົດຂອງປະເທດຊາດ ທີ່ປາສະຈາກຫຼັກໄຊ.
ຍ້ອນມີຫຼາຍຄົນທີ່ຍັງໄຮ້ດຽງສາ ຊຶ່ງພວກນີ້ຈະມົວແຕ່ປະໂຫຍດສ່ວນຕົວເປັນໃຫຍ່ ພວກເຂົາຮູ້ດີຮູ້ຊົ່ວທຸກຢ່າງ ແຕ່ແກ້ງເຮັດ ໜູໜວກກິນຟານ ເພາະເມົາມົວຍົດຖາບັນດາສັກ ເມົາມົວອຳນາດ ຍາດແຍ່ງຜົນປະໂຫຍດເພື່ອ ພວກສະໝູນບໍລິວານທັງຫຼາຍທີ່ພອຍເພິ່ງປາລະມີ ແລະທີ່ສໍາຄັນແມ່ນຜູ້ທີ່ມີຄວາມສາມາດພິເສດຄືລູບແຂ່ງ ເລຍຂາຫົວໜ້າໄດ້ດີ ກໍອອກມາປົກປ້ອງກັນໃນFBທຸກຮູບແບບ ພວກນີ້ເປັນຕົວແປທີ່ສຳຄັນ ທີ່ຈະນໍາຄວາມຈິບຫາຍມາ ສູ່ບ້ານສູ່ເມືອງ, ເຖິງບ້ານເມືອງຊິຫຼົ້ມຊິຈົມລົງພຽງໃດມັນບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈ.
ທຸກສິ່ງທຸກຢ່າງທີ່ເກີດຂຶ້ນຜ່ານມາຈົນເຖິງປະຈຸບັນ, ກ່ອນທີ່ທ່ານຈະຮູ້ສຶກຕົວ ຊັບສິນດິນດອນຕອນຫຍ້າ,ຊັບໃນດິນສີນໃນນ້ຳມັນຫາຍໄປໝົດ ແລ້ວພີ່ນ້ອງເອີຍ! ປະໂຫຍດຂອງປະຊາຊົນມີຫຍັງແດ່? ປະໂຫຍດຂອງບຸກຄົນທີ່ມີອໍານາດມີຫຍັງແດ່? ປະໂຫຍດຂອງຊາດມີຫຍັງແດ່?
ມັນຄຸ້ມຄ່າຫຼືບໍ? ຄວາມຮັກຊາດມັນຢູ່ໃສ? ໃຜຮັກຊາດກັນແທ້? !!!

ທຸກຄົນມີຄວາມຮັກຊາດ! ແຕ່ຖ້າຂາດສະຕິຊາດ ຜູ້ນໍາທຸກຄົນຫວັງປະໂຫຍດສ່ວນຕົວ ກອບໂກຍເອົາຜົນປະໂຫຍດ ຂອງຊາດໄປໃສ່ກະເປົ໊າ ແລະຄອບຄົວ ພ້ອມວົງສາຄະນາຍາດ ຊາດຫຼົ້ມຈົມ ແນ່ນອນ.

ບໍ່ເປັນຫຍັງ? ຍັງບໍ່ສວຍເກີນໄປ! ພີ່ນ້ອງຮ່ວມສາຍເລືອດລາວທຸກຄົນທັງພາຍໃນ ແລະທົ່ວທຸກມູມໂລກ ທີ່ຍັງຮັກແລະຫວງແຫນຜືນແຜ່ນດິນລາວ ຈົ່ງມາຮ່ວມໃຈຈັບມືແລະເຂົ້າໃຈກັນເປັນພະລັງອັນນຶ່ງອັນດຽວລຸກຂຶ້ນສະສາງ ລະບອບການປົກຄອງທີ່ຊົ່ວຮ້າຍນີ້ ໃຫ້ມັນຫາຍສາບສູນ ກ່ອນຊາດລາວຈະພົບກັບຄວາມຫາຍະນະຈະພິນາດ ປະເທດຊາດບໍ່ແມ່ນຂອງຜູ້ໃດຜູ້ນຶ່ງ ພີ່ນ້ອງຈົ່ງໃຫ້ຄວາມສໍາຄັນຕໍ່ຊາດຖ້າພວກເຮົາມີຄວາມຮັກຊາດທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ຈົ່ງຖິ້ມຄໍາພີທີ່ວ່າ:
ຂ້ອຍມີອໍານາດ! ຂ້ອຍມີອິດທິພົນ! ຂ້ອຍໄດ້ຜົນປະໂຫຍດ! ຊາດ-ປະຊາຊົນບໍ່ກ່ຽວ.

Lao PDR: High speed rail could bankrupt Laos, but it’ll keep China happy

Academic rigour, journalistic flair

 

High speed rail could bankrupt Laos, but it’ll keep China happy

 

Click on the link to get more news and video from original source:  http://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-could-bankrupt-laos-but-itll-keep-china-happy-22657

7 April 2014, 6.12am BST

 

The proposed railway hasn’t got everyone in Laos excited. LUONG THAI LINH/EPA

Despite impressive economic growth rates over the last decade, a third of Laos’s population still lives below the extreme poverty line of US$1.25 per day. Most of the extreme poor Laos are ethnic minorities living in rural and upland districts, who depend on local ecological resources for cash income and food.

Expanding transport infrastructure can no doubt be very important for effective poverty reduction – but it would be a stretch to argue that the country’s most urgent human and social development need is a high-speed rail connection between its capital, Vientiane, and its northern neighbour China.

Yet, the Lao government has reiterated its intention to integrate into an emerging ASEAN-China high-speed railway grid. At times, the country’s quest for rail takes on an almost fetishistic quality, with officials simply repeating the mantra that the Laos must move “from land-locked to land-linked”. But for all their zeal, the economic case for high speed rail in Laos remains weak.

Two projects

Laos actually has two high-speed railway projects under consideration. The first and more expensive one, costing about US$7 billion, would form part of an integrated Kunming-Bangkok-Singapore railway. Extending 420km north from Vientiane, it must cross mountainous terrain and numerous river valleys in northern Laos.

This is a gargantuan undertaking for a country that’s GDP was US$9.4 billion in 2012. Nevertheless, the Laos National Assembly approved the Laos-China rail project in October 2012, proposing a US$6.8 billion loan from China’s Exim Bank to cover its cost. According to a 22-page document submitted to the National Assembly, the loan would be guaranteed by all of the income and assets of the railway, and two unspecified mining areas.

There is also a geopolitical angle. The potential for strategic and military applications of high-speed rail projects has been noted, and some argue that China is working to push an Asian rail network to extend its power and influence throughout the region.

Laos’s second line would run 220km east-west through central Savannakhet province. It is still quite unclear how this line would be connected to any supporting rail infrastructure in either Thailand or Vietnam. At present, it represents a rather ambitious commercial venture to link the languid provincial town of Savannakhet with the small border village of Lao Bao, at a proposed cost to the previously unknown Malaysian firm Giant Consolidated Ltd of some US$5 billion.

The financier of the Savannakhet railway project is reported to be an entity named “Rich Ban-Corp Ltd”, initially reported as “Rich Banco” and based in New Zealand, but now apparently registered in Hong Kong. In the UK, Rich Ban-Corp has been listed as an “unauthorised firm”, and investors are warned not to do business with it.

The last remaining train engine from Laos’ French Colonial period. Time for an upgrade? …your local connection, CC BY-NC-ND

These expensive new railway project proposals have drawn the attention of Laos’ development partners. In October 2013 the IMF warned that the Lao-China railway would result in Laos’ total external debt leaping from its current level of 32.5% of GDP to as high as 125% of GDP.

According to the IMF, this would exceed Laos’ threshold debt levels. The country could suddenly be very vulnerable if, for example, China experienced a credit crisis, or if prices for Laos’ key export commodities such as copper took a sustained downturn.

Mega-preneurs

Given the high stakes – the price tags, the resource-based loan guarantees, the implications for national sovereignty – one might expect the case for the railways to be spelled out. However it is not at all clear what sort of analysis is guiding Lao decision makers.

The pros and cons of rail projects should be assessed through detailed economic calculations. This could mean examining the potential to actually promote resource exports, the boost to economic productivity through measures such as the “value of time travel saved”, or the effect on the labour market of integrating second tier cities with the main urban centers. Estimated benefits for tourism revenue could be quantified.

In Laos, this sort of analysis is, so far, completely missing. Instead, a significant part of the Lao railway megaproject game seems to involve efforts by “megaproject entrepreneurs” to convince powerful decision makers and state institutions that their investment plan has momentum, with deep pocketed (yet conveniently obscure) financial backers waiting in the wings.

Laos is particularly susceptible to these sort of opaque dealings through personalised networks. Its state institutions are still a work in progress, and are unable or unwilling to foster a culture of transparency in decision making. The authoritarian nature of the party-state in Laos discourages critical debate or an open competition of ideas.

Perhaps there are defensible economic justifications for high-speed rail in Laos. The boost to regional integration and Laos’ agricultural and mineral exports such as potash, copper, and gold could be significant, although it is not clear why expensive high speed infrastructure would be required for exporting these resources. Moody’s rating agency seems to accept the positive arguments anyway, indicating the Lao-China railway project will be “credit positive” for the country.

But what of the opportunity cost? Even if there were a solid business case for high speed rail, it would still need to be considered alongside the potential national economic benefits of investing that US$7 billion across a range of key development sectors, from highway upgrades, to child malnutrition, maternal health, agricultural extension, and youth education and training programmes.

It is time for Laos’s government to open up and provided some transparency on how these key decisions around high speed rail are going to being made, through what information and data. The country may be about to commit a significant portion of its wealth to these projects; its citizens deserve to know they are getting a good deal, and aren’t being used as a pawn by other nations and their corporate interests.

Moving away from back room wheeling-dealing and towards fuller transparency and the rule of law could help build confidence in Laos’ institutions and governance standards. It would also help future, quality investment projects achieve their full potential for promoting equitable economic growth and reducing poverty.

 

Xayaburi: Experts renew quake fears over Xayaburi dam on Mekong River in Laos

 

Experts renew quake fears over Xayaburi dam on Mekong River in Laos

Thai geologist notes the massive barrage on the Mekong lies close to fault zones; contractor insists seismic guidelines are being followed

Click on the link to get more news and video from original source:  http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1469903/experts-renew-quake-fears-over-xayaburi-dam-mekong-river-laos

Tom Fawthrop in Xayaburi, Laos

PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 08 April, 2014, 10:12pm

UPDATED : Tuesday, 08 April, 2014, 10:22pm

Xayaburi dam on the Mekong. Photo: SCMP

Xayaburi dam on the Mekong. Photo: SCMP

Earthquake experts have renewed concerns about the potential for a seismic disaster hitting the massive Xayaburi dam, which is well under construction on the Mekong River in a quake-prone location in Laos.

Geologist Dr Punya Charusiri of Chulalungkorn University in Bangkok said: “The Xayaburi dam poses a potential danger because there are active faults close to the dam site.”

Dr Punya said there was a 30 per cent chance of a medium-sized earthquake hitting the dam site in the next 30 years, and a 10 per cent chance of a powerful earthquake of up to magnitude 7. He said: “If the fault at the dam site becomes active … there is no chance for seismic engineering to take care of that.”

He also said construction should “never have started” at such a site without further research into its seismic risk, although the dam’s builders say it already complies with all earthquake safety rules.

There have been a series of earthquakes near the project site in recent years, and Dr Punya’s warning comes after Phnom Penh expressed concerns about the earthquake risk at Xayaburi to the Laotian government in 2011.

In 2011, two quakes hit 48 kilometres from the dam site, one of 5.4 magnitude and one of 4.6. A month later a quake of 3.9 occurred 60 kilometres from the site. In 2007, a 6.3-magnitude quake hit the Xayaburi area.

Further away, in northern Myanmar, a 6.9 magnitude quake on March 24, 2011 killed 151 people.

Dr Punya said the quakes near Xayaburi occurred on what were thought to have been inactive faults, “an unusual development and one that causes additional concern”.

The dam is being built by Swiss-based Poyry Energy and Thai company CH. Karnchang. They insist the dam will be safe.

Poyry Energy’s general manager, Dr Martin Wieland, said seismic hazards at Xayaburi had been thoroughly studied and all aspects of the dam’s construction were in accordance with seismic design guidelines prepared by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD).

However, researchers at Chulalungkorn University used remote sensing techniques to identify two active faults nearby, one 60 kilometres from the site and one 20 to 40 kilometres away.

Dr Punya said: “The company should never have started construction of the dam on a fault, before the research into the seismic danger had been completed.”

The government of Laos officially launched the Xayaburi dam project in November 2012, despite protests from the downstream nations of Cambodia and Vietnam, scientists and a host of NGOs. Critics fear the dam’s environmental impact, as well as the risk posed to food production by massively reducing fisheries and the loss of sediment that would affect soil fertility and agriculture.

Te Navuth, secretary general of Cambodia’s National Mekong Committee, said: “An independent and specialised research team must assess the risk of earthquakes and dam safety.”

The Mekong River Commission, an advisory body with representatives from nations along the river, made several requests for information on dam safety management before the Laotian government last month released a “probabilistic seismic hazard assessment”. Thirty per cent of the dam has already been built.

The US$3.5 billion hydropower project, which will sell energy to Thailand, is scheduled for completion in 2019.

Poyry Energy’s Asia director, Knut Sierotzki, recently said “all relevant guidelines from ICOLD were followed by the design engineer to ensure the safety of such a large hydraulic structure”.

Critics say the ICOLD is not an independent research body, but a forum for the dam engineering lobby largely funded by hydropower companies. Poyry’s Dr Wieland is also chairman of the committee on seismic aspects of dam design for the ICOLD.

Last week the Vietnam Rivers Network, a group of NGOs based in Vietnam, called for the immediate suspension of the Xayaburi dam project, citing risks to fisheries, food security and livelihood.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Experts flag quake fears at Laos dam

Ho Chi Minh City: At Mekong meet, all eyes on Laos dams

At Mekong meet, all eyes on Laos dams

Click on the link to get more news and video from original source:  http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/mekong-meet-all-eyes-laos-dams

Mon, 7 April 2014

Laignee Barron

At Saturday’s Mekong summit in Ho Chi Minh City, leaders from Cambodia and Vietnam put Laos in the hot seat with strongly worded statements requesting regional cooperation and responsible use of the shared waterways.

“Even though they weren’t mentioned in the statements by name, everybody knew that implicitly [Laos’s] Don Sahong and Xayaburi [dams] were at the centre of the discussions,” Marc Goichot, a WWF hydropower specialist, said.

In a declaration following the summit, prime ministers from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos agreed to prioritise studies assessing potential effects and consequences of major hydropower projects.

The Vietnamese and Cambodian delegations also requested suspension of major dam developments until after the studies’ completion and subsequent development of management guidelines protecting food security and livelihoods.

“We have to protect our own interests. We will not allow [for construction] if there will be a serious impact,” Lim Kean Hor, minister of water resources and meteorology, said.

Development partners at the summit also called for the Lower Mekong countries to recommit to transboundary collaboration through the Mekong River Commission – the intergovernmental body charged with coordinating sustainable use of the shared river resources.

The development partners on Friday also called on Cambodia to submit its Lower Sesan II dam for regional consultation, a request Ministry of Environment officials declined to comment on yesterday.

By the close of the summit, regional leaders reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation in the face of an increasing number of challenges that threaten the Mekong ecosystem, an approach conservationists say is crucial to protecting the river.

“If the Mekong leaders back their words with actions, [the summit] will hopefully mark the end of irresponsible dam development and the beginning of a more sustainable Mekong River,” Ame Trandem, International Rivers’ Southeast Asia coordinator, said.

Contact author: Laignee Barron

—————

Related:

• At Summit, Cambodia Urges Laos to Delay Dam Construction

The Cambodia Daily (subscription) –Apr 6, 2014

http://www.cambodiadaily.com/news/at-summit-cambodia-urges-laos-to-delay-dam-construction-55863/

At a regional summit in Vietnam on Saturday, Cambodia once again urged Laos to delay construction on a controversial hydropower dam …

 

 

Thailand’s Red Shirts Brace for ‘Judicial Coup’

Click on the link to get more news and video from original source:  http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/thailands-red-shirts-brace-judicial-coup-23234325?singlePage=true

UDON THANI, Thailand April 8, 2014 (AP)

ByTHANYARATDOKSONE Associated Press

In this April 3, 2014 photo, black-clad supporters of Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra perform in a Thai kickboxing exercise in Udon Thani province, Thailand. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

On a scorching afternoon in northeast Thailand, about 1,000 black-clad supporters of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra clenched their fists and punched imaginary opponents with forceful uppercuts. Following the directions of a trainer on a nearby stage, they fended off kicks and practiced footwork to loud speakers blaring music typically heard at a Thai kickboxing stadium.

Sweat streamed down their faces as the men and women shouted, “We will definitely win!”

The scene in Udon Thani province last week was part of a two-day training course for farmers, laborers and others in the heart of pro-government “Red Shirt” country — Thailand’s rural, poor north and northeast.

The Red Shirts have been largely quiet since anti-Yingluck protesters largely representing the urban elite and southerners shut down key intersections in Bangkok for several weeks earlier this year. But now, with growing speculation that Thailand’s constitutional court and anti-graft agency may remove Yingluck from office in what critics say would be a “judicial coup,” her supporters are gearing up to march on Bangkok themselves, raising the specter of renewed violence in Thailand’s decade-long political turmoil.

“We need to show our force and stand by her side,” said Sa-ngob Ratmuangsri, a 64-year-old farmer at the training session called “Volunteers’ Ward to Protect the Country’s Democracy.”

“I wouldn’t be here if I was afraid to die,” he said with determination.

Thailand has been convulsed by political conflict since Yingluck’s brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was deposed in a 2006 coup after being accused of corruption and abuse of power.

Both sides say they reject violence, and the Red Shirts say the kickboxing practice sessions are for self-defense, not attacking people. But since late last year at least 24 people have been killed, including several children, and more than 700 wounded in drive-by shootings, gunfights, grenade attacks and other violence. The anti-government movement has employed armed guards to escort their protest marches, and gunfights have occasionally erupted.

“We know that there are militants on both sides who have been collecting weapons. The violence during the past few months testifies to this,” Michael Nelson, a Southeast Asian studies lecturer at Walailak University in the southern province of Nakhon Si Thammarat. However, he said that the actions to follow “do not necessarily mean civil war” but rather “some sort of combination of protests and guerrilla warfare.”

The Red Shirts — who got their name back in 2007 to distinguish themselves from their “Yellow Shirt” opponents at the time — see themselves as defenders of Thailand’s democracy. Yingluck’s ruling Pheu Thai party won in a landslide in a 2011 election that was deemed free and fair, but she faces strong opposition from a powerful minority that brings together staunch royalists, top army brass and Bangkok’s middle and upper classes, as well as backers in the south.

For their part, the anti-government protesters accuse her party of subverting democracy through corruption and populist schemes that amount to vote-buying.

Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the so-called People’s Democratic Reform Committee, told his own cheering crowds in Bangkok this past weekend he would seize power in the name of “the people” if legal rulings are issued against Yingluck’s government. He promised to replace the current democratically elected administration with an unelected “people’s council” that would carry out reforms to root out corruption.

The Red Shirts’ new leader, Jatuporn Prompan, recently appointed head of the umbrella group United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, or UDD, has said his movement will remain peaceful, but promised to fight back if the country’s judicial institutions remove Yingluck from power.

After Thaksin’s overthrow, two pro-Thaksin premiers were forced out in controversial court rulings, and analysts say Yingluck is likely to meet the same fate.

“On the day it appears without doubt that a person who becomes the prime minister is neither a member of parliament, nor is he or she elected by the people … on that day, a long-lasting battle will commence,” Jatuporn declared in a speech this past weekend.

“We have to fight openly, peacefully and nonviolently, but I can assure you that the number of our people will be several times bigger than the PDRC,” he said.

The last time the Red Shirts descended on Bangkok, in 2010, they occupied a central shopping district for two months. Suthep, deputy prime minister at the time, ordered a military crackdown that left the city’s skyline in flames and nearly 100 dead.

The courts and independent state agencies are widely seen as being biased against Thaksin’s political machine, and a decision by the country’s anti-corruption agency in coming weeks could lead to Yingluck’s impeachment by the Senate if she is accused of dereliction of duty in overseeing a contentious rice subsidy program. Yingluck said recently that she had “not been treated equitably or received any justice” in the case.

Her supporters say the country’s institutions are conspiring against them.

“Since we can’t rely on anyone, not the military or sometimes not even the police, we have to take the matter in our own hands,” said the man leading the Red Shirt training, Suporn Atthawong, known as “Rambo of the Northeast” for his blunt, confident speech.

Suporn said his recruits are not conducting weapons training. “We believe in nonviolent approach,” he said. “But I can assure you that they are willing to sacrifice their lives if necessary.”

Last weekend, the Red Shirts staged their first rally in Bangkok since November. And Suporn’s group has recruited about 24,000 volunteers, some of whom will be selected to join the next training later this month.

Thailand’s army has staged 11 coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, and there are fears it could do so again.

“If the people clash and there’s bloodshed then the military will have to come out,” said Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a law lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University.

Some grass-root Red Shirt supporters aren’t too optimistic about a peaceful solution through negotiations.

“I hope all sides can compromise,” said Sumit Parito, a 43-year-old butcher who participating in the training session in Udon Thani. “But if they can’t, I don’t see any way for us but to rise again.”